In the past 24 hours the India-Pakistan confrontation has moved from a single-night strike to an unstable cycle of retaliation, market nerves and information warfare. India’s 7 May “Operation Sindoor” missile-and-drone raid on nine alleged militant hubs in Pakistan has now been followed by Pakistani counter-strikes, disputed claims of downed aircraft, artillery duels that have killed at least 40 civilians on both sides, a second straight sell-off that erased $83 billion from Indian equities, and rare, urgent phone-calls between the two National Security Advisers. While both militaries insist they “do not seek wider war,” the absence of fresh crisis-management protocols since 2019 leaves a narrow margin for error.
1 | What happened since Thursday morning
Time-line (UTC +5:30)
Key events
Sources
07 May 02:15
Indian Rafale & Su-30 squadrons strike Bahawalpur, Muridke, Muzaffarabad and LoC villages; New Delhi says Abdul Rauf Azhar killed.
2 | Competing narratives & the fog of disinformation
New Delhi posts satellite clips of “surgical precision”; Islamabad streams images of flattened homes and children’s funerals. Some viral photos of “downed Rafales” are from a 2014 Sukhoi crash and have been debunked by India’s fact-check cell. (www.ndtv.com, YouTube)
Editorial lines now track national scripts: Indian Express hails a “timely pay-back,” while Express Tribune calls the raid “melting sindoor on India’s face.” (The Indian Express, The Express Tribune)
Al Jazeera and Guardian columns argue that such kinetic shows have “no lasting deterrent value” and expose India’s big-power ambitions to new risk. (Al Jazeera, The Guardian)
Macro outlook: India’s $3.7 trn economy can ride out a brief skirmish; Pakistan’s $370 bn IMF-dependent economy cannot. A two-week flare-up could trim India’s FY 25 growth by 0.2 ppt, but shave a full 0.8 ppt off Pakistan’s, push the rupee past ₹300/$ and lift CPI by 1–1.5 ppt. Credit agencies have already tagged the crisis “credit-negative” for both. (Bloomberg, India Today)
4 | Human cost & social temperature
Casualties: 48 confirmed civilian dead, 150 + injured across Kashmir, Punjab & AJK. (The Sun, Al Jazeera)
Displacement: 11,000 villagers in Poonch-Uri belt and 6,000 in Kotli District have fled to relief camps.
Schools closed: Nearly 900 institutions shut within 5 km of the LoC.
Online hate: Hashtags #CrushPakistan and #RevengeForKashmir trending on X; bot-mapping shows 45 % accounts created in last 48 h.
Run-away escalation – extended air war, limited ground probes
15 %
Additional squadron moves to forward bases, mass mobilisation rhetoric.
6 | De-escalation & trust-building agenda
6.1 Military & diplomatic
DGMO joint verification: Share drone imagery to confirm no build-ups within 5 km of LoC.
UAE-facilitated humanitarian corridor for medical evacuation from Muzaffarabad and Uri. (Dawn)
Mandate expansion for UNMOGIP to include drone incidents and cease-fire monitoring. (www.ndtv.com)
6.2 Economic
Re-open Wagah-Attari for perishables; synchronise temporary zero-tariff list on 15 essential medicines.
Resume Indus Waters Treaty joint inspection postponed since 2023 to signal cooperative intent.
6.3 Civil society & media
Fund a cross-border fact-checking alliance (e.g., BOOM, Dawn FactCheck) to debunk viral misinformation.
Restart cultural visas and academic exchanges halted since COVID-19; people-to-people ties outlast official freezes.
7 | Holding the Modi government to account
Lever
Action
Judicial oversight
Public-interest litigations citing Article 21 can demand a proportionality audit of Operation Sindoor—mirroring suits filed after Balakot 2019.
RTI transparency
File Right-to-Information requests for satellite damage assessments, legal clearances and civilian-casualty reviews.
Parliamentary scrutiny
Force a joint session of Defence Committees; mandate testimony from NSA and Air-Force chief.
Investor pressure
UN-PRI signatory funds can flag conflict-risk in upcoming Indian sovereign-bond prospectuses.
Global media spotlight
Encourage Guardian, Washington Post and Dawn to run forensic casualty audits and amplify border-resident voices. (The Guardian, Dawn)
8 | Bottom line
The crisis is still dangerous yet containable. Both militaries appear to be signalling punishment, not invasion. History shows South Asia’s nuclear shadow and outside mediation usually enforce a climb-down, but today’s faster drone-turret cycle and online outrage machines shorten reaction times. Transparency, third-party mediation and visible economic concessions are the clearest off-ramps—while robust institutional checks at home remain the most credible way to keep the Modi government (and its Pakistani counterpart) honest.
